2017 Honda Classic: Cut Makers

At its core, I feel course history is one of the biggest factors in picking my teams each week, some weeks it will pay off and other weeks in won’t.  Obviously you need to look into recent form and shots gained against the field.  A lot of courses have been modified over the last 10 years or so thanks to equipment and guys simply driving the ball farther and straighter.  Course history shows me who’s comfortable and likes the layout.  Last week I posted 10 golfers who were cut makers at Riviera, 7 made the cut.  This week I have 12 golfers who have yet to miss is a cut here in a minimum of 3 starts.

I always try to simplify it the best I can, keep it simple stupid.

Minimum 3 Starts:
Brendan Steele:  ($8,100)     6/6

Jason Dufner:      ($7,500)     6/6

Stewart Cink:       ($7,100)      6/6

Sergio Garcia:      (10,900)     5/5

John Senden:       ($6,400)     5/5

Gary Woodland:    ($8,300)     4/4

Luke Donald:         ($7,600)     4/4

Derek Fathauer:    ($6,400)     4/4

Russell Knox:        ($9,000)     3/3

Brooks Koepka:    ($7,500)     3/3

Ian Poulter:            ($7,300)     3/3

Robert Streb:        ($7,000)     3/3

2017 Genesis Open: Looking Back

Quick recap.  I apologize if there are some grammar or spelling errors.  I just wanted to get this out while I’m still somewhat awake.  Looking back on my first couple articles, I was hoping I was more right than wrong.  I hit on some and on others (Chalk Howell III) I missed.  Overall, it was a profitable week but nothing world changing.  Going forward I am going to continue to post GPP thoughts, fades, sleepers, and etc.  Hope you guys continue to read and hopefully gain some knowledge along the way.  So, with that said.  Let’s take look back on the hits and misses from my entries on the site.

High/Mid/Low:

https://dfsgolfgrind.wordpress.com/2017/02/14/2017-genesis-open-highmidlow-preview/

6 out of 7 made the cut with the exception of Yams.  I wish I had more Haas ownership and less Steele ownership.  Haas came through if you played him, Steele did not.

I obviously wished I played more Schneiderjans.  He’s going to be a guy to follow and play a decent amount until his salary catches up.  Could be a good pick this week at the Honda. He will win on tour this year, have a good feeling about that prediction.

Grading the Sleepers:

https://dfsgolfgrind.wordpress.com/2017/02/14/2017-genesis-open-sleepers/

Paul Casey (C-)  Always happy to see a cut made but ultimately, he didn’t score nearly as well as I would have hoped for someone at his price ($8,600).  Struggled to really get it going all week and just wasn’t in contention.  DK Points:  69.50

Pat Perez (C)  Looked like Pat Perez was going to give DJ a run for a little while but decided he rather spray the ball and hit spectators, 3 to be exact.  Another one who made the cut!  At his price of ($7,000) and low ownership Perez looked to be well worth his price.  His disappearing act towards the end of round 3 and into round 4 was disappointing.  DK Points:  66.50

Brian Harman (F)  Not too much to say here.  Good course history and excellent form coming in and he put up a dud.  Not going to write anything else, just awful performance this week.

Ryan Palmer: (B)   HE MADE THE CUT, HE MADE THE CUT.  Well, I couldn’t roster him this week after he burned me for three straight weeks but it was good to see he finally made a cut.

Cut Makers:

https://dfsgolfgrind.wordpress.com/2017/02/14/2017-genesis-open-cut-makers/

7 out 10 will continue to add on their consecutive cuts made at Riviera.  Why didn’t I play Tringale again?
The GPP Picks: 

https://dfsgolfgrind.wordpress.com/2017/02/14/2017-genesis-open-gpp-picks/?iframe=true&theme_preview=true

I listed 16 guys who I would be targeting for my GPP picks.  I went 9-16.  Not acceptable, really blown away by the choke jobs by Moore and Leishman (on my never roster again list).  Bubba was a wildcard and proved that he shouldn’t be rostered again until he plays a real golf ball.  I already discussed Brian Harman and there is no need to mention Yams as he was a disaster too.

I did have some highlights though, how about the low owned Charley Hoffman?  He alone kept me relevant in my scramble lineups.  I was blown away at his low ownership and price ($6,500).  Charley is a birdie maker early on in the season usually and this week was more of the same.  Seung-Yul Noh helped to salvage a $33 dogleg that was ruined by Leishman and also came in very low owned despite good course history and recent form.

My do not roster list and fades:

With the exception of Charles Howell III, I hit.  Swafford and Koepka were no where near the cut and Rober Streb bombed out in the second round.  Justin Thomas and Jason Day made the cut and did nothing of note.  Course history or lack of course history (Koepka) paid off for this tournament.

2017 Genesis Open: Who I’m Fading

 

First off, I appreciate all the messages I’ve been receiving.  Seems like I’ve got some great feedback and I appreciate the questions!  I’m slowly getting more followers and for that I am grateful.  So with that said, the most common questions I’ve been receiving is:  Who am I fading and why?  If you noticed yesterday on twitter I posted a picture of Charles Howell III.  That caught some people off guard and the messages came in.  So, each week I’m going to post a couple fades that I like and obviously it can end up burning me, but if it doesn’t, then it makes you and I look like geniuses for the week.  So with that said, let’s take a look at some of my fades for this week.

 

Charles Howell III:  For me, I am one of CHIII’s fans for the past year and played him in most of my GPP tournaments but this week is a bad week for CHIIIl in my opinion.  Yes, he’s off to a great start this year with three top 15 finishes to start the year.  However, he’s taken off the last two weeks for rest and that already concerns me, why not ride the momentum into at least Phoenix and take the week off from Pebble?  Secondly, Riviera has not been kind to CHIII at all.  In his last eight visits to Riviera he has made 4 out 8 cuts and his best finish in the past eight years in 59th in 2009!  Yes, he made the cut last year and came in 75th place, for second to last for those who made the cut.  I give him credit though, he keeps coming back even though this course has been extremely unkind to him.  Lastly, he loses strokes to the field here on average he is losing -1.27 strokes. I do expect his ownership to be over 10 percent in most of the GPP’s this week.

 

Justin Thomas:  Off to a great start to this year obviously with back to back wins but I’ve faded him after his two wins.  Missing the cut in Phoenix obviously helped those who faded him in most GPP tournaments.  This week is no different for me, there is no doubt that Thomas is a supreme talent but his wayward drives from time to time will not benefit him on a course like Riviera.  It also seems like his balky putter returned in Phoenix and that concerns me on these greens especially.  His best finish in his starts at Riviera was 41st in 2015.  This is a course that doesn’t set up well for his game in my opinion and with better value just below him, he’s an easy fade for me.  I do expect low ownership though, so if you are looking for a low owned golfer, jump on board with Thomas.

 

Jason Day:  Okay, not a complete fade because his price is so tempting for me.  I will throw Day in a couple low dollar GPP’s but I cannot in good faith throw him into a lot of lineups just yet.  It was mentioned that Day has become a tinkerer with his putter from week to week depending on the course he is playing.  He changes loft and lie for the different greens.  Don’t like that one bit personally but obviously he’s the world’s number 1 golfer for a reason.  Day has not played here competitively since 2012 where he finished 62nd.  He is another golfer that I don’t feel 100 percent on and can’t get a great read on him just yet.  Like I said, not a complete fade for me but I am definitely not all in.

2017 Genesis Open: GPP Picks

Here is a rundown of my targets for this week and guys I’m not going to be considering.  (Please note, that I may change strategy if news/gut feeling arises).  I’ll do my best again to label the high/mid/low tier guys.  My research really extends from course history, recent form, average strokes gained, and driving accuracy.  This will change some weeks depending on the course but I feel these stats match up pretty well for Riviera.  I have had some decent success(knock on wood) for the past two weeks going with these and will continue to let it ride.

High: ($9,500 and up)

Jordan Speith

Hideki Matsuyama

Dustin Johnson

Adam Scott

Mid High: ($7,700 to $9,500)

Sergio Garcia

Paul Casey

Bubba Watson

Middle: ($6,700 to $7,700)

Seung-Yul Noh

J.B. Holmes

Brian Harman

Adam Hadwin

Ryan Moore

Marc Leishman

Low: ($6,400 to $6,700)  

Charley Hoffman

Kyle Reifers

Camillo Villegas

The do not roster list for me:  (So, you should expect all to make the cut and play great golf)

Charles (Chalk) Howell III

Patrick Reed

Hudson Swafford

Brooks Koepka (maybe a lineup or two at most)

Robert Streb (burned me two weeks in a row, not again this week)

2017 Genesis Open: High/Mid/Low Preview

We will go over recent cuts made and most importantly (IMO) who is gaining strokes against the field the past few weeks.  Please remember Riviera Country Club has very unique greens and fairways and can give even the seasoned veteran at this course fits, I’d expect some first timers to struggle this week some.

High:

Jordan Speith ($12600)  Yes, the most expensive golfer this week and winner last week at the AT&T Pro Am.  Speith has played in four tournaments this year and has finished 1st, 9th, 3rd, and 3rd.  He absolutely took complete control this past week and has been showing signs that his game is in a great place this year.  Course history is average (2-4) with a ugly 79 in last year’s first round that led to a missed cut.  In his two previous appearances at Riviera he finished 4th and 12th respectively.  He is currently average 2.42 strokes gained over the course of his fine play against the field.  For me personally, I usually always fade the previous week’s winner but I will buck that trend somewhat this week.

 

Hideki Matsuyama ($11500)  Winner two weeks ago in Phoenix where he pretty much was a machine and cost me taking home $1,500 in a GPP due to defeating Webb Simpson in a playoff.  Mats is more or less a model of consistency week in and week out with the occasional questionable missed cut.  Mats comes in this week after taking last week off and looks to continue his outstanding play.  Absolutely solid course history making the cut each of his three starts here and finishing no worse than 23rd in 2014.  Mats not only has a win this year but also a second to go along with two other top 30 finishes.  He is currently averaging 1.87 strokes gained against the field in his four tournament appearances this year.

 

Dustin Johnson ($11400)  DJ comes into this week making 3 out of 4 cuts and elite course history at Riviera Country Club.  He has made 6 out 8 cuts at Riviera and when he makes the cut, he finishes in the Top 10 here.  How does 4th, 2nd, 2nd, MC,4th, MC, 3rd, and 10th look?  DJ knows this track and is due to finally win this tournament.  Dustin in his four appearances this year has gained 1.85 strokes against the field.
Mid:

Bill Haas ($8000)  I can never guess right with Haas in my GPP lineups.  He always seems to produce when I don’t play him.   So with that said, Haas comes into this week after taking two weeks off after the birth of his daughter.  He has only played in two tournaments and has a pair of Top 20’s to show for it.  Haas won this tournament in 2012 but he is also  batting a solid .500 when it comes to making cuts.  When he does make the cut he performs well.  If you play him, hope for the right Haas to show up.
Brendan Steele ($7100)  Brendan Steele, you give and take away.  After his hot start in Phoenix and his subsequent drop in the closing rounds, Steele comes in this week with great form making all four of his cuts with finishes no worse than 20th.  Steele has good course history overall at Riviera (5-6 cuts) with 10th being his best finish in 2014.  To date, Steele has been solid with the putter gaining 1.77 strokes gained against the field.

Low:

Ollie Schneiderjans ($6900) Call this a gut pick for a couple low GPP’s this week for me, Ollie comes in making all four cuts this year and has been gaining strokes against the field at a respectable 1.18 clip.  No course history here, so be careful with this one!

Adam Hadwin ($6600)  Shocked at his price this week!  Hadwin comes in playing some solid, solid golf.  He’s made the cut in all four of his appearances and seems to be feeling more and more comfortable on tour.  Solid course history here finishing 16th and 22nd respectively in his only two appearances.  I do worry about the burnout factor coming into this week as he is playing for the 5th week in a row, so be somewhat cautious.  Strokes gained against the field comes in at 1.64.

2017 Genesis Open Sleepers

In this preview, I’m going to post some golfers who I feel may be overlooked due to where they fall within the pricing on DraftKings.  I believe these guys could play themselves into a Top 10-15 range and help carry your team if they make your roster.

Paul Casey ($8600)  Paul Casey gives and takes, if you follow twitter or rotogrinders forums religiously this will verify that.  Paul Casey comes in as the 9th highest priced golfer on DK this week but has had a decent start to his year but the missed cut at The Sony Open in Hawaii is still fresh in the minds of some.  Don’t let that miss cut fool you, Casey is ranked in the Top 20 in the world for good reason, and with good course history he can and should be on your radar for your lineups in GPP’s due to ownership being under 8 percent.

Pat Perez ($7000)  I know, I know.  You don’t have to say it.  He cost a lot of people money two weeks ago in Arizona after a injury (blow up hole).  You can’t deny that he has been playing outstanding golf as of late and at $7000 you will be hard pressed to find better value in this range, especially since he has good course knowledge of Rivera making 5 of 8 cuts.  You need to have a short memory in DFS, obviously play him sparingly if you do but he could pay off big time if he continues playing great golf.

Brian Harman ($6900)  A shorter hitter by tour standards but has been playing excellent golf as of late and has four consecutive finishes in the Top 30 and you have a guy that is probably still under the radar with Holmes, Koepka, Simpson, and English in the same price range.  I expect Harman’s ownership to be at 5 percent max in GPP’s.

The out there pick:

Ryan Palmer ($7400)  I know, he’s been AWFUL to start 2017.  He has missed four straight cuts to start the year and looks like he is grinding to make something happen.  His wife is battling breast cancer at home and I’m sure it is affecting his play.  The 86th ranked golfer in the world is due sooner or later.  Throw him in a lineup or two in a cheap GPP play and he could make you look like a genius or a fool.  No one will judge you too badly, I promise!

 

2017 Genesis Open Cut Makers

2016 Northern Trust Open winner Bubba Watson finishing at -14 under par.

New year, new tournament sponsor, and old Riviera Country Club.

This week’s DraftKings pricing seems to be better than in past weeks, though one can question how Hunter Mahan at $7200 is more expensive than Brooks Koepka at $7100 or Webb Simpson at $7000 respectively.

This week’s tournament has a very strong field including last week’s winner Jordan Speith ($12,600) Hideki Matsuyama ($11,500) Dustin Johnson ($11,400) Adam Scott ($10,300) and Jason Day ($10,000).

Rivera Country Club comes in at 7,322 yards and par 71.

First we will focus on cut makers at Rivera Country Club.

Name:                                               Salary:                                                               Cuts(Min. 3 Starts)

K.J. Choi                                             ($6400)                                                                           (8-8)

Jim Fuyrk                                           ($6700)                                                                           (7-7)

Cameron Tringale                            ($6600)                                                                          (6-6)

Justin Rose                                         ($8400)                                                                           (5-5)

Phil Mickelson                                  ($7900)                                                                           (5-5)

Charl Schwartzel                              ($8100)                                                                           (4-4)

Harris English                                   ($6800)                                                                           (4-4)

Hideki Matsuyama                           ($11500)                                                                          (3-3)

Paul Casey                                           ($8600)                                                                           (3-3)

Seung-Yul Noh                                  ($7400)                                                                           (3-3)

As you can see, there is plenty of value to be had if you base some of your picks on course history this week.  This is a course that has unique greens and fairways (Kikuyu) so someone that has seen the course and played on these types of greens/fairways has a distinct advantage over those who are seeing the course for the first time this week.

Welcome!

So, never thought I’d create a website or blog that would cover daily fantasy golf but with my love of writing and being persuaded by my loving wife, here I am!  So, again, welcome to my blog here at DFS Golf Grind.  I have updated my about me section to give you a quick run down of who I am, what I do, and what I aspire to do.  I have quickly fallen in love with daily fantasy sports and more specifically golf.  Golf is a grind, it takes a decent amount of research, thought, and of course some good fortune.  I am hoping to use this site as a way to help out those who are beginning to get interested in playing daily fantasy golf or those like me who aren’t pros (yet) and hoping to grind and pay their bills or diapers.  I am here to help and be helped along the way if you want to contribute!  Thanks for stopping by and lets grind!

 

-Kevin