2017 Masters: GPP Picks

One more day!  So, as we close to the start of another Masters, everyone is scrambling to tinker lineups with the current forecast looking interesting for the first round.  Will it affect my lineups for this week?  Yes and no, I’ll be cognizant of tee times but I won’t just throw a lineup of tee times that are earlier in the morning and I won’t be sure to play too many late guys either.  Key will be to find a happy medium of early/late guys you feel comfortable with.  So, with that said, he is my picks with a short explanation.

 

Jordan Speith ($11,500) He is a stud here, plain and simple.  Yes, his form is a little off, especially after he missed the cut last week.  Can’t fade Speith due to his exceptional course history and his 3.57 strokes gained against the field here.

Dustin Johnson ($11,300) World #1, no explanation needed.

Rory McIlroy ($10,600) Comes in hot, solid course history, he’s due to win a green jacket soon.

Jason Day ($10,200) Go ahead and fade him, I won’t be.  He seems to be in a good place right now.

Rickie Fowler ($9,300) Hopefully the demons from last year are long gone, his form is remarkable right now.

Justin Rose ($9,200) For better or worse, I’ll be overloaded on Rose this week.  His course history and recent form make it a no brainer for me this week.

Jon Rahm ($8,600) Stud, will be underweight on Rahm this week due to his first time playing here.

Louis Oosthuizen ($8,100) He has never won in the United States but he always seems to preform here in Augusta. He has also made every cut this year.

Matt Kuchar ($7,400) No one is talking about Kuch this week, not too sure why.  He has a solid track record around here and has a solid 1.37 strokes gained against the field.

Marc Leishman ($7,300) I have a love/hate relationship with Leishman, he’s due to win a major with his ball striking.  Solid form coming into this week.

Bernd Wiesberger ($7,100) Solid course history, solid form, will be underowned by the field.  Not by me, though.

Tommy Fleetwood ($6,900) Solid form coming into this week, a rookie at Augusta so I’ll have a couple shares this week.

Jhonny Vegas ($6,700) Why not?  Vegas has proved his game is a good place coming into this week, he has played this course before(MC) but for his price and recent form, I have no problem playing some Vegas this week.

 

These are just some guys I am highlighting, a lot of good plays this week, so let’s hope for a fun four days!

2017 Masters: Fades

Always an interesting entry for me that I put up from week to week.  I feel that a hit or miss on these guys is usually in the slightest margin.  To date, I feel I have hit more than flopped.  So with that said, a couple guys I’m fading.

 

Henrik Stenson ($9,500) Nothing earth shattering here, Henrik just isn’t showing up for the moment right now and I’d hate to have zero shares and have him win it this week.  He will just be massively under owned like most of you will be this week.   Trying to dig through his course history and for whatever reason nothing really stands out, either.  He does generally make cuts here making 6 out of his last 8 but has yet to finish in the Top 10 in Augusta.  Again, Stenson could come out this week and shred the course up, I’m hopeful that he doesn’t, and I cannot find a really good reason to roster him more than a handful of times especially when there is so much more value under him.

 

Zach Johnson ($7,400) Yes, he has won here before, and yes, he has a decent course history here.  However, on a rain soaked Augusta with high winds, I’m going to pass.  Everything about his game right now screams FADE.  Hate to play the equipment narrative but PXG hasn’t been working too well for Johnson.

 

Jim Fuyrk: ($7,200) Another name that I used to play a lot but age is coming up to him and the conditions they are forecasting this week will make the decision to fade Furyk pretty easy.  Long Augusta is not good for the straight but short driving Furyk.  His recent form leaves a lot to be desired too.

 

Justin Thomas ($8,900) Not a full fade, just an underweight ownership for me.  Such a talent when the course is wide open, his length should keep him relevant through the week but I just can’t trust his driver around Augusta National.  Call this a gut pick, I see his driver causing him more harm than good this week.

 

Going to think long and hard about the following:  Speith, Day, Kaymer, Matsuyama, Watson, and Walker.

2017 Masters: Sleepers!

I’m back, back again!  Let’s look at some sleepers this week!

Charley Hoffman ($7,100) I always have a soft spot for Hoffman every week for better or worse.  He is generally a solid pick most weeks with the occasional flame out with the putter.  Hoffman has had some success in the Masters making his 3 cuts in 3 appearances where he has finished in the top 30 in each of his appearances and is rounding into solid form for this week.  Hoffman will be under owned this week in my opinion, but he shouldn’t be with a solid 1.15 shots gained against the field in Augusta.

 

Jhonathan Vegas ($6,700) Flier of a pick for sure but Vegas is playing exceptional golf this year and will undoubtedly under owned in this week.  His biggest asset is his driver and it will be needed this week on a soaked Augusta National.  Vegas’s form can’t be denied as he has made his last four cuts and is gaining 1.41 strokes against the field in his last four appearances.

 

Louis Oosteheizen ($8,100) Not too sure if we can consider Louis a sleeper or not but I have a feeling he may be overlooked by the field, I won’t be one of them.  Louis seems to turn his game up a notch when he is playing in Majors and I expect more of the same this week.  Louis doesn’t get into a lot of my lineups during regular tour stops but he will be here this week.   Louis has a solid track record around Augusta and comes into this week playing relatively solid golf.  Play him and hope for another double eagle and or a hole in one!

 

Pat Perez and Brendan Steele:  Listing these two together as they are very, very similar statistically  and recent form that I feel I could write the exact same short paragraph for both.  Both golfers have played here once before years ago, and both missed the cut.  Both have been playing relatively solid golf this year and both are in the low 7k range and will be overlooked due to Hadwin, Berger, Kisner, and Leishman.  I will throw both into a couple of lineups and hopefully reap the benefits as these two guys will go massively under owned this week.

 

Couple of fliers to consider:  Woodland, Wiseberger, Lowry, and Koepka.

2017 Arnold Palmer: GPP Plays

This week there are some obvious plays for GPP’s for me.  I’ll sort some high/mid/low guys that I will be targeting this week.  I’ll continue to look at course history, strokes gained against the field, and recent form.  Once again, I’m a GPP player who attempts to keep everything as simple as possible.  Sometimes too much information will be over analyzed and you’ll neglect certain aspects of a player’s recent play.  So, with that said let’s take a look at my plays this week.

 

High:

Rory McIlroy ($12,000) Most expensive golfer this week will definitely be faded by some due to this.  I will definitely have exposure to Rory this week, seems like this tournament is set up well for his game and with his length and driver in hand, I’ll take him every week on a course like this.  Solid course history here too, 2-2.

 

Henrik Stenson ($11,500) Can you say ELITE course history?  In his last five appearances, here his worst finish was 15^th in 2012.  He spoke earlier this week how much this tournament means to him and I wouldn’t be surprised to see him take this tournament down this week. His course history alone makes him a must play.  Oh, and he is averaging an outstanding 1.91 strokes gained against the field at Bay Hill.  That is pretty special.

 

Justin Rose: ($9,500) Rose has pretty solid course history here, with making 4 out 6 cuts.  When he makes the cut here, he finishes 15^th or better.  That’s a sign of comfort for Rose.  Rose comes into this week with good form overall, averaging 1.42 shots against the field in his tournament appearances, his putter has always held him back, but he seems to have straightened it out a bit.

 

I’ll have some shares of these guys too:  Fowler, Matsuyama, and Hatton.

 

Mid:

 

Francesco Molinari ($8,600) Molinari is priced a little higher than I’d like this week but his course history here raised his price for this week.  He has made the cut in all four of his appearances and posts a solid 1.64 strokes gained against the field at Bay Hill.

 

Adam Hadwin ($8,400) Hadwin is playing outstanding golf and his price this week shows.  After winning last week at the Valspar, there will be some to expect a letdown.  I don’t see it, Hadwin is putting lights out right now and his confidence in his game right now that I’ve taken notice of.  Hadwin finished tied for 36^th here last year so he is familiar with the track. I can’t fade him this week, can’t do it.

Jason Kokrak ($7,900)  I need to be honest here, his price scares me a little this week.  I hardly play Kokrak but diving deeper into his stats and course history, even I can’t deny that he is a solid play this week, even if his price is higher than I feel comfortable with.  Kokrak has very good history at Bay Hill making his last 3 cuts and finishing 20^th or better each time.  Again, his price alarms me this week so I won’t go overboard on shares but to me, I need to play him.

 

I’ll have some shares of these guys too:  Na, Noren, Kisner, Kaymer, and Swafford.

 

Low:

Chalk Howell III ($6,800) Not too much needs to be said, solid course history at a budget price.  Yes, please.

 

Graham DeLeat ($6,800) Another guy I can’t fade with his recent form coming in at a reasonable price.  DeLeat is one of the reasons why I’ll have some gray hair coming in soon.  Course history isn’t anything to write home about as he has only played here twice.  I feel DeLeat is comfortable with his game and I can’t think of a valid reason to not have shares of him this week.

 

Anirban Lahari ($6,700) Zero course history and crazy travel schedule.  So, why am I playing Lahari?  He is flat out producing right now, Lahari is an up and coming golfer who I have played a lot recently and will continue to do so until he shows something otherwise.  Lahari is scoring well averaging 1.69 strokes against the field in his tournament appearances.  If he keeps scoring this well, I’ll continue to play him.

 

I’ll have shares on these guys too:  Poulter, Leishman, Glover, and Campbell.

 

Want some fliers?  How about Rob Oppenheim who finished 20^th here last year and has had a decent start in a few appearances this year.  Also, will play Brandon Hagy, have a feeling he will be around this weekend.

2017 Arnold Palmer: Fades

Smaller field this week, so the fades will be a bit more challenging this week.  Fades for me this week come down to recent form being off, most of these guys are just missing cuts left and right and don’t warrant being rostered.  Though, these articles in the past have led to some guys out performing their projections, so you might as well sprinkle a couple of these guys in!

 

William (Dirt) McGirt ($6,800) This pains me to write this…Dirt has made me a good amount of money over the last year.  His recent form just doesn’t warrant me playing him a lot this week.  He is 1-4 in cuts made this year and placed 28^th at the no cut WGC Mexico.  Dirt does make cuts here, so I wouldn’t be surprised to see him play on the weekend but generally his finishes are nothing special.   Not a full fade but I will have very limited exposure to my man, Dirt.

 

Thomas Pieters ($8,700) Pieters is a stud as we saw in California and in Mexico.  He also flamed out badly at The Honda Classic.  Pieters did play in this event last year finishing 76^th so he has seen this course before.  I feel that his price is a little inflated this week and there are golfers around his price that I much rather place over Pieters.  I expect his ownership to be relatively high this week, let’s say around 17 to 20 percent in some GPP’s.

 

Kevin Chappell ($8,000) Finished 2^nd here last year to Jason Day and has made 3/6 cuts here with his worst finish being tied for 24^th in 2014.  Chappell is another guy who is priced too high in my opinion, especially considering his current form and the fact that he’s losing 1.27 shots against the field this year.  Chappell is 2-4 in cuts this year with his best finish being 48^th at the AT&T Pro Am.  I usually play a decent amount of Chappy but until his game comes around, it will be a full fade for me.

 

Bubba Watson ($7,500)  Yeah, no.

2017 Arnold Palmer: Sleepers

Looking into sleepers this week, I’ll focus mainly on course history, recent form, and shots gained as usual.  Same strategy going forward of keeping it simple.  Sleepers for me are guys who you want to make a cut first and foremost and then make a play for a Top 20 finish.

Anirban Lahari ($6,700) This guy is a world traveler.  He is making a trek back to Florida after placing 5^th last week in India.  Two weeks ago, he finished 11^th at The Honda Classic.  Lahari is an up and coming golfer who most have not yet taken notice of.  It is easy to play the jetlag narrative this week after flying back to Florida after being in India and of course no course history.  His ownership levels should be around 5 percent this week in my opinion and you will be getting a golfer who is read hot coming into this week with four top 30 finishes worldwide in 2017.

 

Ollie Schniderjans ($7,000) He burned a lot of people last week with the awful double bogey on the last hole in the Valpsar. I get it, I do.   Again, keep it simple and have a short memory this week.  Ollie comes into this week making 5 out of 6 cuts and still has a solid 1.02 shots gained against the field average in the tournaments he has played in.  Charles Howell III (Chalk) will be owned at a much higher level coming in at $6,900 and most will skip right over Ollie.  I won’t be one of them and you shouldn’t either.

 

Byeong-Hun An ($7,000) One of the tournaments he played in last year finishing a respectable 36^th.  An comes into this week making 5 straight cuts and looks to make it a 6^th.  An has shown that he can compete on the PGA Tour and is due to win this year, with so much value around his price point, I expect An to go under owned.

 

David Hearn ($7,000) Hearn’s 2017 season has been a rollercoaster.  He struggled in the beginning but his game is starting to show signs of trending in the right direction.  He has made the last two cuts and with a 18^th place finish last week at Valspar his form is rounding into shape.  One thing that can’t be denied?  He makes cuts here, he is 4-4 with his best finish coming last year finishing 20^th.  Don’t go overboard with the Hearn ownership, his course history shows that he feels comfortable playing here and that should give you a reason to throw him into a couple of lineups.

 

Other sleepers worth considering this week (in no particular order):  Chad Campbell, Morgan Hoffman, Billy Horschel, Sean O’hair (if neck checks out), and  Alexander Noren.

2017 Arnold Palmer: Cut Makers

Hope all you guys were profitable last week!  I am back after not playing a lot this past week due to some unfortunate circumstances but I am back at it this week for the Arnold Palmer Invitational.  First entry this week as always looks at course history and guys who have made the cut in at least 3 starts.

Charles Howell III      ($6,900)                               8-8

Henrik Stenson          (11,500)                                7-7

Martin Laird               ($8,100)                                7-7

Kevin Na                      ($7,600)                               6-6

Francesco Molinari   ($8,600)                              4-4

Billy Horschel             ($7,000)                              4-4

David Hearn              ($7,000)                                4-4

David Lingmerth      ($7,000)                               4-4

John Huh                   ($6,900)                                4-4

 

Others who are showing signs of being course horses (in no particular order)

Zach Johnson, Sean O’Hair, Ian Poulter, Chad Campbell, William McGirt, Rory McIlroy, Hideki Matsuyama, Jason Kokrak, Jason Day, Marc Leishman

WGC Mexico: Lists and Notes

I’m a big course history guy when making picks week in and week out, but with this week being a new course for all the players in the field.  I have been receiving messages through the blog and on twitter looking for key stats to key in on, especially with guys coming over from Europe.  I decided to dive into looking at Euro stats and PGA Tour stats to make a Top 15 of sorts for guys in 3 key stats that I am looking into this week.   I am keyed in on recent form with driving accuracy, birdie or better percentage, and strokes gained will be important this week so I will factor that in some with some of my guys to key in on.

(Just a FYI, the European Tour needs to take note of what the PGA Tour does with the stats, it’s incredible what the PGA Tour is putting out there.

Driving Accuracy:

1. Jim Furyk
2. Francesco Molinari
3. William McGirt
4. Henrik Stenson
5. Roberto Castro
6. Russell Knox
7. Jason Dufner
8. Soren Kjeldsen
9. Tommy Fleetwood
10. Kevin Kisner
11. Sergio Garcia
12. Martin Kaymer
13. Ryan Moore
14. Emiliano Grillo
15. Brendan Steele

 

Birdie or Better Percentage:

1. Brandon Stone
2. Justin Thomas
3. Jordan Speith
4. Hideki Matsyama
5. Pablo Larrzazabal
6. Justin Rose
7. Phil Mickelson
8. David Lipsky
9. Jon Rahm
10. Russell Knox
11. Adam Scott
12. Bernd Wiseberger
13. Danny Willett
14. Brendan Steele
15. Scott Piercy

 

 

 

Strokes Gained against the field

1. Henrik Stenson
2. Tyrell Hatton
3. Jordan Speith
4. Dustin Johnson
5. Justin Rose
6. Jon Rahm
7. Sergio Garcia
8. Bernd Wiseberger
9. Bill Haas
10. Martin Kaymer
11. Lee Westwood
12. Gary Woodland
13. Brendan Steele
14. Kevin Kisner
15. Justin Thomas

 

Quick takes:

This feels like a Speith week, so you should fade him if you love money.  I like his form and his stats are standing out, there are some others looking at his results from Riviera as a reason not to play him and I can understand that as this course somewhat resembles Riviera.  Speith is rested and I will be a little overweight on him this week.

Stenson is deadly with his atomic 3-wood but putting on fast greens concerns me greatly.

The European contingent have compared this course to those they play in Italy and Spain.  There is a comfort level there so definitely sprinkle some of those guys in like Kaymer, Hatton, Noren, and etc.

Russell Knox stats out well but his recent form leaves a lot to be desired.

The Riviera narrative and Dustin Johnson’s success there will lower my ownership greatly for better or worse.

Johnny Vegas at $6,600 screams TRAP but I may fall into it this week.

Andy Sullivan at $6,500 seems appropriate considering his current form but he is a name most will know and get rostered a decent amount in GPP’s if players want to stack DJ/Stenson or DJ/Rahm.

WGC Mexico Championship: First Look

‘What a weird week.’  That’s all I could keep saying to my wife and newborn daughter as I watched The Honda Classic from home.  It wasn’t a profitable week for me but it could have been much worse if it wasn’t for Johnny Vegas and Rickie Fowler saving a bunch of my teams.  Looking back at my blog entries last week I was definitely hit or miss. My GPP picks for high/mid all made the cut and the low’s all missed.  My fades all made the cut surprisingly.  Such is a life of DFS player.  Just a quick preview of what is to come this week in Mexico.

So, this week is a small 75 player field/no cut event in Mexico.  I am primarily focusing on 3 max entry GPP’s and Single entry only GPP’s.  These events always scare me as you never know what to expect.  Daniel Berger ruined a lot of teams for many in the DFS community after hitting one tee shot and withdrawing at a WGC Event in Ohio last year and collecting a pay check for $50,000.  You CANNOT go into this week thinking and over analyzing who an early withdraw candidate could be in this field due to these guys making the trek to Mexico.

Thanks to Future of Fantasy, he was able to equate this course of over 7100 yards to approximately 6500 yards due to the elevation change.  The bombers will not have advantage this week as the altitude will even the playing field.  Since there is no course history here, in my opinion of trying to keep it simple as always, I’m looking at guys who are dialed in on their irons from 125 to 175 yards, birdie or better percentage and recent form.  There will be more entries this week but just a quick glance this week, these are some of the guys standing out in no particular order:

Emiliano Grillo

Jordan Speith

Jon Rahm

Dustin Johnson

Justin Rose

Russell Knox (I know)

Brandt Snedeker

Henrik Stenson

Alex Noren

Thomas Pieters

Johnny Vegas

Matt Kuchar

Kevin Na

Andy Sullivan

Bubba Watson (Yup)

I’m just getting into looking at key stats and should be able to break everything down for tomorrow’s entries.  This is going to be another weird week for us, I’m expecting a birdie fest if the weather cooperates.

2017 Honda Classic: GPP Plays

This week there are some obvious plays for GPP’s for me.  I’ll sort some high/mid/low guys that I will be targeting this week.  I’ll continue to look at course history, strokes gained against the field, and recent form.  Once again, I’m a GPP player who attempts to keep everything as simple as possible.  Sometimes too much information will be over analyzed and you’ll neglect certain aspects of a player’s recent play.  So, with that said let’s take a look at my plays this week.

 

High: 

Adam Scott: ($12,200) Highest priced golfer this week.  Scott hasn’t played a lot of golf this year but finished 11^th last week at Riviera.  I’m not the most comfortable playing a lot of Scott this week but will have a couple shares.  His price tag drives me away and I’d rather stack a couple guys that cost a little less than him.  Scott is the reigning champ, knows this course well.  My opinion would be to play Scott but don’t go all in, Scott’s putting game always worries me and I cannot in good faith play him a lot.

Rickie Fowler: ($11,900) Fowler comes into this week in pretty good form.  Missed the cut at The Farmers and bounced back nicely in Arizona.  I always play Fowler, almost to a fault.  This week will be much of the same for me.  He has made his last five cuts here and the comfort level is evident with a 1.03 shots gained against the field.  I don’t know if I have a good read overall on his ownership this week with being the second highest priced player in the field but I have no problem paying up for him and letting it ride.

Sergio Garcia: ($10,900) Sergio struggled last week at Riviera in his first appearance of the year on the PGA Tour.  He comes to Florida with a win under his belt after playing outstanding golf in Dubai three weeks ago.  Like Adam Scott, Sergio is such a hot/cold putter that a lot of DFS players can get turned off to playing him.  One thing you can’t deny is that Sergio makes cuts and plays well at The Honda Classic.  He has made his last 5 cuts here and has a couple of top 10’s to go along with that.  Sergio takes advantage of the field with an outstanding 1.62 strokes gained.  Don’t want to say I’m all in on Sergio this week but I will have plenty of shares.

 

Mid:

Brendan Steele ($8,100) I went heavy on Steele last week just like most of you and it didn’t really pan out too well.  I am grateful for the made cut but his putting at Riviera left a lot to be desired.  Steele is a guy who has great course history making six straight cuts at The Honda and he’s also off to a great start on tour this year making 5 straight cuts.  Steele is just a solid golfer who makes cuts and plays very well here.  Not too much to add, he seems like a straight forward pick this week.

Russell Henley: ($7,900) A surprising miss cut here last year for the 2014 champ.  I wouldn’t expect to see another one this year.  Henley has only played three times this year with a pair of Top 20 finishes and a missed cut at The Career Builder.  As mentioned before, Henley has won here before, is comfortable playing here, and I would expect that trend to continue.  In this tournament over the past four years he has gained almost a stroke against the field.

Graeme McDowell: ($7,300) McDowell is Off to a pretty good start to his 2017 season.  Played well over in Europe before making the cut last week and finishing 67^th.  McDowell loves this tournament and it shows.  He has made 6 out 7 cuts here and has four top 10 finishes.  McDowell flat out scores well here and it shows with his 1.62 shots gained against the field.

Low:

John Huh: ($6,800) Huh has been a under the radar guy to start the year.  He has made 3 out of his 5 cuts to start the year.  One reason why he is on my radar this week is his course history.  He has made 3 out 4 cuts here with a pair of Top 20’s.  I wouldn’t throw him into a larger money GPP but in the smaller GPP’s he’s worth a couple fliers and it will free up some money up top.

Seamus Power: ($6,400) I’ve been touting him since the Olympics in Rio.  Power is a guy who has earned his way up to the PGA Tour after spending last year on the Web.Com Tour.  Power has made 3 out of 4 cuts to start the year and looks to play well on a relatively windy course year in and year out.  Not too many stats to back up on this one.  He’s another guy who will give you salary relief.